Modeling land productivity and crop yields under changing climate and land use management using Artificial intelligence in Lake Kyoga basin, Uganda

Modeling land productivity and crop yields under changing climate and land use management using Artificial intelligence in Lake Kyoga basin, Uganda

Principal Investigator

Dr. Catherine Mulinde Kafeero: Team leader
Department of Geography, Geo-informatics and Climatic Sciences, Makerere University
P. O. Box 7062, Kampala, Uganda

Executive Summary

The impact of climate change on land productivity and agricultural production and thus, food security is increasing in Uganda. Annual and inter-seasonal climate variations in the Lake Kyoga basin have been documented to affect land productivity and rainfed crop production systems in the basin. Smallholder farmers have learned to cope with climate-induced yield losses through an array of strategies. However, the community adaptive capacity being a function of exposure and sensitivity to climate shocks is likely to vary across landscapes. Understanding of these farm-based land management practices with their associated impacts on crop yields along land productivity levels is limited. Yet this information is vital for appropriately scaling out the best combination of farm-based land management practices for improved crop production. Therefore, Identifying and quantifying the relationships between crops yields and land productivity, climate change and land management practices, allows for better ways to close the yield gaps, increase yield potentials and improve predictive capability of crop yield for climate change adaptation. Machine Learning offers an important opportunity as a decision support tool for crop yield prediction, including supporting decisions on what crops to grow and what to do during the growing season of the crops under changing climate and land management practices. Unfortunately, in Uganda, paucity of research work exists that deals with the issues of agricultural crop yield prediction under changing climate and different land management practices using artificial intelligence approach. Most of the research is based on predictions based on classical statistical models and biophysical models. Therefore, this project seeks to contribute to improved understanding of climate change adaptation and crop production through assessment of land productivity and crop production of different farm-based land management under changing climate in Kyoga basin and build capacity for Makerere University students in crop productivity and climate change adaptation assessment using artificial intelligence. Specifically, to, i) Assess the soil and land productivity of standing biomass in the Lake Kyoga basin; ii) Determine sustainable farm-based land management practices for climate change adaptation in the Kyoga basin; and iii) Determine the current and future spatio-temporal responses of rainfed maize and sorghum yields to climate change and farm-based land management practices using machine learning –based modeling in the Lake Kyoga basin. The study will be conducted in three agroecological zones of Lake Kyoga basin of Uganda, i.e. the semiarid rangelands; highland ranges and the Kyoga plains. The study will employ both extensive field surveys, Geospatial analysis and machine learning-based modeling approaches. The study will provide opportunity to train two Master of Science (MSc) students in crop productivity, climate change adaptation and Artificial intelligence studies. The study outputs include; two (2) MSc. Students trained as part of human capital development in climate change adaptation, land productivity and application of artificial intelligence for crop production prediction; An inventory of Land productivity indices and farm-based sustainable land management practices; two research theses; two peer reviewed journal articles published; a catchment machine learning based model developed for predicting crop yields; and one policy brief.

Main objective

The main of the project is to contribute to improved understanding of climate change adaptation and crop production through assessment of land productivity and crop production of different farm-based land management under changing climate in Kyoga basin and build capacity for Makerere University students in crop productivity and climate change adaptation assessment using artificial intelligence.

Specific objectives

  • Assess the soil and land productivity of standing biomass in the Lake Kyoga basin
  • Determine sustainable farm-based land management practices for climate change adaptation in the Kyoga basin
  • Determine the current and future spatio-temporal responses of rainfed maize and sorghum yields to climate change and farm-based land management practices using machine learning –based modeling in the Lake Kyoga basin

Key Research Question(s) and Hypotheses to be tested

  • What is the land productivity potential across a spectrum of different terrestrial biomes and agro-ecological zones to maize and sorghum production in the Kyoga basin?
    • Land productivity does not vary across different terrestrial biomes and agro-ecological zones in the kyoga basin
  • What are the major existing farm-based sustainable land management practices adopted for climate change adaptation in the selected agroecological zones of Kyoga basin?
  • What are the best existing farm-based land management practices that increase Maize and Sorghum production as a response to major climate shocks and risks?
  • How does the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the environment influence maize and sorghum yield in the selected agro-ecological zones of Kyoga basin?
    • What are the key drivers of the spatio-temporal variability of rainfed maize and sorghum yields?
    • What is the relationships between climate, soil, and management factors and the spatio-temporal variability of rainfed maize and sorghum crop yield?
  • What are the best land use management practices to increase maze and sorghum yields in the future under changing climate?
  • What is the applicability of machine learning based models in predicting maize and sorghum yields under changing climate and farm-based land management in the tropical agroecological zones of Kyoga basin?